All GOOG all the time...


1) Losing my shirt on GOOG stocks (actually not that much but still hurts)... mostly just re-evaluating my investment thesis :)

2) On the positive note, GOOG is trading suprisingly strong in the after market. After losing 20% in the first hour of trading it is now back in the -10% area. Given after hour trading are mostly hedge funds and professional money managers, it bodes well for GOOG. Its like the Teflon stock... most high flier that misses will usually lose 20-30% (eBay) but GOOG might be able to buck the trend. Of course, retail investors probably are not looking at after hour trades when they put in their MARKET sell orders overnight, so GOOG will definitely drop from the 380 range again at the bell and MAYBE slowly climb back to 380 by the end of the day tomorrow... we’ll see how GOOG does... no views/calls this time.

3) Perry Wu of China Tech News writes Google Is Destined To Fail In China...

Perry’s analysis is actually not that rigorous, BUT his attitude/tone towards GOOG is actually very indicative of the general population in China. IE... GOOG is not a Chinese company and there for it will not win... not for another other reason than they fact that “made in China” creates a higher preferrence for the end user. I’m not sure American understand how “nationalistic” the Chinese can be (sometimes to a fault), but this is certainly a marketing strategy for native companies competing with American bohemoths. GOOG conquered US purely base on its PR story (wicked smart founder, immigrants chasing the american dream, underdogs taking on giants) and a great great product (not unlike David and Jerry). The second part (product advantage) doesnt really exists anymore in China. The first part, the Chinese companies has a better story and Google is no longer the underdog that it was when Larry and Sergei first got started... it is just another American MNC trying to make money off the goldmine that is the Chinese economy... certainly not that noble and not that interesting... In short, in China, Google is the antagonist and not the protagonist of the story in the struggle for Chinese internet dominance.

eBay Express Announcement


Why the boring title? cause I dont want to gather the collective wrath of eBay’s PR department with something titillating and controversial :) Actually I just wanted to try to answer a question that Rob and Pete asked... “why the collective yawn and silence in the blogosphere regarding Express?”

First before I rant on... I want to congratulate Chung and Adam for a job well done with Express and that I’ve learned much from both (esp Chung since I sit in the same row) watching them navigate the maze that is eBay to get their vision out the door. They are really the driving forces and the unsung heros behind express and deserves some time in the limelight (even if that means it is in this lightly trafficted blog :) )

For sure, eBay Express cannot be called a category disruptor at first glance. eBay Express is not a “web 2.0″ product which anticipates an user need 2-3 years from now for its target users. It is not innovating ahead of the market. It is not DICTATING to users what they need to do OR who they need to be to be accepted as the leading edge adoptors. aint that sexy and as such, the blogosphere could care less. That however, doesnt mean that eBay Express will not be a category killer or an innovation with deep consequences for the online e-tail industry.

eBay Express is more like the iPod. Certainly not the first mover and certainly not that sexy if you just look at the specs and a press release. (remember which was Amazon before Amazon became Amazon). What it is... is months of market research, segmentation analysis, and usability testing combined with a deep intuitive understanding of why and how people shop. It is an innovation not for the sake of innovation but FOR a segment of users. Too few technology companies do that today...too few have learned not to talk down to its user base but instead to listen, respond, create, position every single piece of its product for users who was intended to consume it. This is how P&G, Gillette, 3M and other non-tech consumer companies survived for tens if not hundreds of years as leaders in their industry. Identify an underserved and large segment and relentlessly create a new product to serve that segment’s need and preferrences... and let innovation come as part of that process. (sneak peak...Express finding engine has more “edge” characteristics than even people here would like to admit)

And finally, Pete, I am confident you’ll like the pretty pictures & logo we have in the works for Express.